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Conviction and direction

The two most important fields on any per-ticker brief, and the two most commonly misinterpreted. This page explains exactly how they're calibrated and how to read them.

The fields

Every brief carries:

{
  "direction": "neutral",      // long_bias | short_bias | neutral | no_signal
  "conviction": 0.24,          // 0.0 to 1.0
  ...
}

These come from the direction signal — a deterministic composite computed by the analytics pipeline, not an LLM judgement. The analyst writes the brief AFTER the direction signal is computed, and an editorial gate requires the brief to be coherent with the signal.

What direction means

Value Reading
long_bias The substrate stack (price, regime, structure, positioning, critical events) leans bullish. The publication thinks the next material move is more likely up than down.
short_bias The substrate stack leans bearish. Next material move more likely down than up.
neutral Substrates conflict or compress; no clear directional lean. Could resolve either way.
no_signal Insufficient data to call. Usually a new ticker, recently halted, or substrate ingest issues.

neutral is not weak long_bias. A neutral read is an active call that the tape is balanced. It carries information — "wait for resolution before committing" is a valid strategic position.

no_signal is the absence of a call, not a third direction. When you see this, the publication is telling you it doesn't have enough to say anything responsible. Most reasonable agent responses: skip the ticker, retry next cycle.

What conviction means

A float from 0.0 to 1.0 expressing the publication's confidence in the directional call — not in the trade idea, not in the price target. It answers: "how strongly does the substrate stack support this direction value?"

Banding

Conviction range Label Plain-English read
0.0 – 0.20 minimal Direction is the slightly-more-likely outcome, but the call is weak. Substrates are noisy or thinly aligned.
0.20 – 0.40 low Direction is supported but with significant disagreement across substrates. Treat as soft.
0.40 – 0.60 moderate Substrate alignment is reasonable. A typical "we think this matters" conviction.
0.60 – 0.80 strong Substrates strongly aligned. The publication is confident in the directional read.
0.80 – 0.95 very strong Rare. Multiple substrates flagging the same direction at high intensity.
0.95 – 1.00 extreme Almost never seen. Either a major news catalyst with structural follow-through, or a data quality flag (check the brief's data_quality_notes).

How conviction interacts with direction

The combination matters:

Direction × Conviction What it means
long_bias + 0.65 "We think this is bullish, with strong substrate alignment." Tradeable read.
long_bias + 0.18 "We think this is bullish, but the call is weak." Informational only.
neutral + 0.55 "We're confident there's no directional lean here." Active call to wait.
neutral + 0.10 "We're not confident there's no lean — substrates conflict and we can't break the tie." Genuine uncertainty.
short_bias + 0.40 "Moderate bearish call."
no_signal + anything The conviction is informational — usually reflects substrate availability, not market confidence.

Common misreadings to avoid

"High conviction means buy" — No. Conviction is about the directional call, not about whether to trade. A neutral brief with conviction 0.75 is a strong "do nothing" signal.

"Conviction values are comparable across tickers" — Mostly yes, but with caveats. The direction signal uses the same composite formula across the universe, so a 0.60 on BTC and a 0.60 on AAVE are calibrated the same way. However, alts often have noisier substrates (thinner orderbook, less consistent regime classification), so conviction values on small-cap alts can be slightly more volatile cycle-to-cycle.

"Conviction will trend" — No. The signal recomputes every cycle from scratch. A ticker can go from conviction 0.55 to 0.20 in the next cycle if the substrate stack shifts. This isn't a bug — it's the system honestly responding to changed conditions.

"Low conviction = wrong" — No. Low conviction means we have less confidence, not we're more likely to be wrong. A low-conviction long_bias that resolved up still counts as the right call. A high-conviction short_bias that resolved up was wrong — and the next cycle will show that resolution in the substrate stack.

Where conviction comes from

The composite formula weights price action, regime classification, structural levels, positioning data (funding / OI / L/S ratios), and critical events. Each component contributes a sub-score; the final conviction is a calibrated combination.

The MCP doesn't expose the per-component breakdown — the brief surfaces the composite, not the math, because the math is the publication's IP.

Refresh cadence

Conviction values refresh every cycle — roughly every 30 minutes, around the clock (crypto markets run 24/7). So at any moment the data you read is at most ~30 minutes old.

Putting conviction to work

Three patterns worth building into how you ask — no code involved, just instructions your assistant will follow:

Gate on the band. Tell your assistant how you want conviction treated, once: "When you give me Coin Daily reads, treat anything under 0.40 conviction as informational only, and only flag reads at 0.60 or above as high-confidence." It will apply the rule every time it surfaces a brief.

Ask for corroboration, not one surface. A directional read is more interesting when three independent surfaces agree: "Before you summarise SOL, cross the brief with the sentiment trajectory and the research arc — tell me if they agree or disagree." Tape + corpus + arc aligned is structurally meaningful; divergence is the part that protects you.

Watch for fresh flips. A read that just changed is different from one that's been stable for days: "Check whether the desk changed its mind on any ticker this cycle — flag any direction changes and whether conviction is rising." The publication tracks cycle-over-cycle continuity precisely so this question has a grounded answer.