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Market regime and volatility

The question: “Is this market unusually quiet or active, and how does that compare with its own recent history?”

The combined context panel describes observed hourly variation with two readings that share one clock:

  • the volatility chart measures how large recent hourly returns were;
  • the regime strip names the model state for that same hour.

Both describe past observations. Neither is a forecast, a trading signal or a calibrated confidence score.

Open it

Show the market regime and volatility context for Bitcoin over the last seven days.

The widget shows a Volatility measure control, a shared Inspect hour ending slider and a regime strip beneath the chart. The status line repeats the selection as Selected hour ending <time> and names the current state. Ask for another ticker or window the same way you ask for any other focused chart.

See the panel

Research Desk market regime and volatility panel for BTC: 4-hour, 1-day and 7-day return-variation lines, a regime strip, the selected hour ending 25 September 2026 10:00 UTC labelled Lower variation, and the observed volatility table
Latest hour selected. Research Desk (browser) capture, 25 September 2026. BTC with 2026-09-25 10:00:00 UTC selected: Lower variation, 4-hour return variation 0.53% at historical percentile 50.2. The chart, strip and table all follow the selected hour. View full size.
Research Desk market regime and volatility panel for BTC with 21 September 2026 11:00 UTC selected: the state reads Elevated variation, the 4-hour return variation is 2.69% at percentile 98.7, and the 7-day percentile is still building history
The same window, an earlier hour. With 2026-09-21 11:00:00 UTC selected, the state reads Elevated variation and the 4-hour reading is 2.69%; the 7-day percentile is still Building history. Moving the selected hour changes both the values and the named state. Research Desk (browser) capture, 25 September 2026. View full size.
Research Desk regime state colours legend: Lower variation — Model state named for lower hourly return variation; Sparse activity associated — Model state associated with sparse hourly activity; Elevated variation — Model state named for elevated hourly return variation; Rare high variation; thin support — Uncommon high-variation state with few comparable observations
The released legend. Four frozen model states for observed hourly variation — purple, teal, amber and pink in released order: Lower variation; Sparse activity associated; Elevated variation; Rare high variation; thin support. Research Desk (browser) capture, 25 September 2026. View full size.

Research Desk (browser) captures, 25 September 2026. These are static examples, not MCP widget renders and not live quotes.

One hourly clock

The context panel observes hourly closes. It stays hourly when you change a price chart between 1h, 4h and 1d candles; changing the candle interval does not change these observations. The widget shows the requested window and the source pair it observed.

Inspect hour ending is a local reader, not a new request. Moving it points the chart, the regime strip and the readout at the same captured hour. Use Get a fresh read when you want a new capture; that may include source corrections and is not the original frozen result.

The two measures

Measure What it shows Units
Observed return variation The size of hourly return variation across the selected horizon Percent; the square root of summed squared hourly log returns. It is not annualised
Historical percentile Where the selected horizon's reading sits among this market's own earlier observations A percentile from 0 to 100

Each reading is available on three horizons: 4 hours, 1 day and 7 days. These are different measurement windows over the same hourly observations — the short window reacts faster, the longer window describes a broader span. Each horizon carries its own magnitude and percentile, so one can be ready while another is still building history.

The historical comparison window

Percentiles compare only this market with up to 90 days of available prior observations. That is a cap on the available baseline, not a promise that every asset has 90 complete days of history. Missing ranks can mean insufficient history, even when a magnitude exists; a new or sparse market can show a magnitude with no percentile yet.

Regime state colours

The strip uses the same four frozen model states wherever those colours appear. The released widget maps them to purple, teal, amber and pink in this order:

State Colour Released description
Lower variation Purple Model state named for lower hourly return variation
Sparse activity associated Teal Model state associated with sparse hourly activity
Elevated variation Amber Model state named for elevated hourly return variation
Rare high variation; thin support Pink Uncommon high-variation state with few comparable observations

The supplied legend capture in See the panel shows the same order. These names describe the model's hourly variation state. They are not market direction, forecasts or calibrated confidence. An unchanged colour while volatility moves is valid: the state is an hourly classification, and the magnitudes are separate measurements that can change within one state.

Gaps, readiness and limits

  • The panel shows whether the hourly feed is current or interrupted and names the observed source pair; treat an interruption as incomplete coverage, not a zero. Where the observed quote is USDC, USD is the display proxy.
  • When a measure has no finite readings in the selection, the chart states: “No finite readings for this measure; regime observations remain.” The regime observations are still shown.
  • Missing observations remain gaps, never zero. A percentile that is still building history, or a horizon whose rank is not yet available, is an expected limit — not an error and not a zero.
  • Historical observations are not necessarily current. Keep the read time and the selected hour when you discuss a reading.

Where to go next